The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump issued a National Emergency Declaration on April 2, 2025, declaring a national emergency over the U.S. goods trade deficit, citing:
A lack of reciprocity in trade relationships, unfair tariff and non-tariff barriers, foreign economic policies that suppress wages and consumption in the U.S. In the initial Tariff Announcement and 90-Day Pause
Trump initially announced a30% tariff on South African imports in April 2025. He then paused implementation for 90 days to allow for bilateral negotiations. South Africa submitted a Framework Deal in May, offering concessions like: Duty-free quotas for U.S. vehicles and steel, Market access for U.S. natural gas and fracking tech, Seasonal access for U.S. agricultural products.
With negotiations stalled and the 90-day window closing on July 9, Trump reinstated the tariffs at 30%, effective August. He cited South Africa’s “non-reciprocal” trade practices and persistent deficits as justification.
Global context: South Africa was one of several countries targeted, including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia. Trump warned that any retaliatory tariffs would be met with further hikes. He also threatened additional tariffs on countries aligning with BRICS, which had recently criticized unilateral U.S. trade actions.
South Africa’s response: President Ramaphosa disputed the U.S. claims, noting that 77% of U.S goods already enter South Africa duty-free, and that South Africa’s average import tariff is just 7.6% on such US import goods. The South African government expressed disappointment that its proposed deal was rejected and emphasized continued diplomatic engagement.
Impact on SA export industries:
The 30% U.S. tariff on South African imports, effective August 1, 2025, is expected to have severe consequences for several key export industries. The most affected sectors and the anticipated impacts:
Agriculture
Citrus Industry exports about 7million cartons annually to the U.S with an Economic Value: Over R38 billion per year. Jobs supported are estimated at 35,000 especially in rural areas. The tariff will raise costs significantly, risking loss of market share to competitors like Chile and Peru.
Wine sector
Profitability will be wiped out for many producers due to increased costs across the supply chain and risk Job losses and economic strain in viticulture-dependent communities.
Other affected crops
Macadamia nuts, avocados, blueberries, table grapes, and stone fruits are also vulnerable, and many of these crops are export-ready or expanding, making the tariff a threat to future growth
Manufacturing & industrial exports
Automotive Components that South Africa exports parts to U.S. automakers and increase in tariffs will reduce competitiveness and may lead to contract losses.
Steel and aluminium
These sectors are already under pressure globally and a further tariff could lead to plant closures or production cuts, affecting jobs and regional economies.
Broader economic effects
The decision has caused trade uncertainty has the tariff undermines the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which previously gave South Africa preferential access to U.S. markets. Exporters may delay or cancel investments due to unpredictability. Our SMEs and Emerging Farmers: are especially vulnerable and may need government support to survive.
Strategic response
South African industry bodies and government officials are calling for diversification into markets in Asia, the EU, and Africa Continent. There’s a need to support packages including logistics relief and export finance. Also, an urgent diplomatic engagement to negotiate a lower tariff ceiling is needed.
South Africa’s strategic use of AfCFTA
Diversifying Export Markets in accelerating efforts to reduce dependency on traditional markets by expanding trade within Africa. It is estimated that AfCFTA offers access to 1.3 billion consumers with a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion. There are 44 participating countries with harmonized trade rules This shift is seen not just as a fallback, but as a long-term reorientation of South Africa’s trade strategy. With South Africa planning to leverage AfCFTA to increase exports of automotive parts, processed foods, chemicals, and manufactured goods to African markets. Building a regional value chains, especially in sectors like automotive manufacturing, where South Africa already has a competitive edge.
